My thoughts on BREXIT

 

Well this cartoon says it all what I think of Brexit 😀 Short about what is going on.

UK needs to decide on Brexit until March or within +/- 2 months. Alternatives are:

  1. Deal with EU on exit with agreed terms. Most likely no border control and staying in custom union for some time. Best case.
  2. Brexit term is prolonged. UK parlament needs to vote on cancel their own bill to exit EU on 2019 March. This opens the door for 2nd referendum, but this means new parlament election and very bad for Conservatives that has majority at the parlament and were elected on promise to make a referendum and honor the results. In this case they fail their promises. Lots of mess in UK. Middle case.
  3. Hard brexit without no deal. Worst case.

Personaly I bet on 3 option. There will be a recesion in UK. Some slowdown in EU. Might even triger a world recesion if this goes global and hits hard enough US or China to triger their own recesion. This might be the Leaman brothers event for 2019, but it looks like that there is not that much steem in the baloon for the moment as it was in 2008.

So buckle up, looks like 2019 will be some ride 🙂

8 thoughts on “My thoughts on BREXIT

Add yours

  1. The more reasonable option from my point of view is the second one. The first one is unlikely to happen as there is not time left, and the third one is like a suicide and a very selfish and egocentric move, because as you say it can potentially trigger a global recession. China’s economy is badly hammered, US seems to follow behind and adding a no brexit deal on top of that may be fun to watch.

    Like

    1. Tottaly agree. Problem with second option is that this will be a suicide for conservative party that has the majority at the parlament. They will fail to deliver what they promised – a brexit so I would bet that they will go for no deal brexit then 2 option.

      Just imagine two 80something brits sitting in the park – “We defeated Napoleon and Hitler, we will manage to leave that roten EU without any deal. Who are thouse eu beurocrats that think they can command britain what we should do. F*** thous europeans, long live the qeen!” Then the 3rd option is becomind most realistic one 🙂 I hope you are right that this will end in 1-2 scenario, but I would bet on 3.

      Like

      1. Haha I do indeed imagine this Brits conversation, in fact, I heard myself a similar one not long ago. Younger generations have a different approach though, and some say that if there would be a second referendum the outcome would be the opposite, as some of those 80 something no longer live!

        It Is true that the Conservative party promised to deliver Brexit, and option 3 could go ahead coz of that. It’s just difficult to believe for me that happening, as they would leave the country with food, medication and raw materials shortage plus a massive mess on the Irish Border that could potentially trigger a civil war in the worst case scenario.

        I follow a YouTube channel with good Brexit content. It’s called TLDR News, just in case you would be interested.

        I just realised you added me on your blogs you follow list. Thank you, so will I 🙂

        You follow nearly the same blogs as I do hehe, happy to have landed on yours.

        Like

      2. Thanks Tony. Ye its nice to find another blogger alike 🙂 Well I would not predict a apocaliptic scenario for no deal brexit as agrements can be done later. And border cobtrol and customs can be aranges also not fully over night but gradualy. I bet for 3 senario but without apocaliptic outcome. Yea there might be a small dip in economy growth but I think it will not be as bad as Greece crisi in 2012. -1% of EU growth, max -2% and stagnation fror 1y or so. As for UK -few% GDP this year and back to growth next. I think there will be a reasonable agrement later on but for now there will be a no deal brexit. The process has gone to far to cancel it now.

        Liked by 1 person

  2. I think what you, like many people, have missed is that this is just an ‘exit’ deal not the future trade deal between the UK and the EU. If no deal happens then it just reverts to WTO, however there will be an issue for the EU with Ireland. The UK and Ireland have said they will not build or put up a hard border. Therefore it will then be up to the EU on how to protect the edge of their borders.

    Potentially a sea border between the UK & Ireland, however this could cause issues with N.Ireland being out of the EU but still being treated as in the EU. Or both the UK and Ireland having a sea border to the rest of the EU. Who knows?

    I don’t understand why the third option is selfish or suicidal. The issue many people in the UK have with the EU is because it is wanting political and economic allignment. This is very different to how the organisation was when the UK first joined, as it was just a ‘common market’ for trade. Had it carried on a just a trade alliance then I don’t think anyone in the UK would want to leave. However as it is now much more and can be viewed as trying to create a United States of Europe in the future, the UK people have voted to not be a part of this.

    Imagine if your country created a trade deal with China. Then China over a number of years implemented changes which gave China more political and economic control, which effectivelly meant China was ‘in control’ and any major legal decision had to go through the Chinese courts. Now being in this relationship gives good economic outcomes for your country, however you and the people in your country may not be happy with China being ‘in control’ (even if those decisions are good) and want absolute decisions to be made by your country’s leaders.

    Now would a little short term economic harm be worth the political/ideological gain? To some yes, others no, but no one can really put a cost on this.

    I do find it interesting that many people are saying the UK needs to stay in the EU because it can’t survive on its own, but leaving the EU will cause a global recession?!?!?!? Also I think the shortages will not be a major issue for most people. 30% of food is bought from the EU to the UK, which is mainly fresh produce and for a short while can carry on without. As for medicines, I imagine that most supplies have already overstocked. The issue isn’t that we can’t buy anything from the EU after 29 March with no deal, beacuse the UK can,

    Personally I think it can still go anyway. The UK elite want to stay in the EU and the EU would like the UK to stay (39 billion reasons short term, etc) So I still think that staying in the EU can’t be ruled out even if partial damage has already been done to the UK (HQs moving to the EU) and the enormous embarrassment.

    I big problem with the delay is that there is on one remain option, but many, many different leave options. Because the EU refused to negotiate the future trade relationship until the ‘divorce’ deal was agreed, it has made the ‘divorce’ deal difficult to agree; because some aspects of the ‘divorce’ deal are dependant on the future trade deal. Very chicken and egg!

    Either way like buying an individual stock, it could be a good thing, a bad thing or neutral!

    Like

    1. Hi Marty. Thanks for such a clear comment. I Tottaly agree on what you say and go even further that UK leaving EU is a good thing for EU as well. UK was always the black sheep re integration. Was the only member wity opout for euro. And many many things. Its likr team building when it is very important to put the right people to the bus but more important to get the wrong ones out and UK was in the wrong bus (EU).

      Re global recession it will not be UK fault, just a triger for the house of cards (China and US) to fall apart. If the houses are strong enought then its ok, but if they have weak fundation like it was in 2008 then a black swan event moves everything and it all falls apart.

      Like

      1. Yes I certainly agree. It isn’t good trying to build something if some members want to move a different way.

        By the way Denmark also has an official opt out for the Euro, so not just UK. But yes the UK gets a lot of opt outs.

        I think the only reason the UK has been ‘allowed’ to stay in with veto is because of the large resources they can offer the EU.

        It will be interesting to see how the EU budget is adjusted to the lower income level.

        Let’s hope a good exit deal can be agreed and a good future deal agreed for all parties.

        Like

      2. Lets hope for the best and prepare for the worst 😉
        And Denmark dont have optout for euro. Its just they failed on referendum and now stuck in the middle. Has fixed rate to euro, but not euro it self. Same was in baltics. Its like you have 1/3 of euro but named different and have no say to euro decisions. I think Denmark is in a dumb situation now.

        Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Powered by WordPress.com.

Up ↑

One Million Journey

Shaping the future through DIY investing

Dividends for Dinner

Average Joes Make Dividends

Total Balance

Ignite your FIRE

Young Dividend

Our journey to financial independence

Legend of Income

Our journey to financial independence

Evolutionary Investor

Our journey to financial independence

Broke Investor

My Journey to Financial Independence

Generalist Lab

Our journey to financial independence

Passive Canadian Income

Our Journey To Financial Freedom

%d bloggers like this: